RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2023 06:30PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	5%	0%	+5%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	5%	0%	+5%	-1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	10%	1%	+9%	-5%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	80%	99%	-19%	+6%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2023 06:30PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	1%	+9%	-8%
No	90%	99%	-9%	+8%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2023 06:30PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	12%	9%	+3%	+1%
Su-35 fighter jets	68%	7%	+61%	-1%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2023 06:30PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	40%	2%	+39%	+0%
Oman	50%	2%	+48%	-1%
Qatar	73%	1%	+72%	-1%
Saudi Arabia	2%	3%	-1%	-5%
Tunisia	30%	1%	+29%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 03:14PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	5%	+35%	-1%
No	60%	95%	-35%	+1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 03:15PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	2%	+78%	-41%
No	20%	98%	-78%	+41%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	10%	2%	+8%	-1%
Latvia	10%	1%	+9%	-1%
Lithuania	10%	1%	+9%	-1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 10:40PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	6%	+74%	-8%
No	20%	94%	-74%	+8%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2024 02:27PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	25%	+5%	-26%
No	70%	75%	-5%	+26%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 26, 2024 12:52AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	96%	+2%	+0%
No	2%	4%	-2%	+0%

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