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apdl

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brazilian diplomatic student : CACD

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 11, 2024 12:48AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 80% 9%
No 20% 91%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:35PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 5% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 5% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 10% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 80% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:35PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 20% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:35PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 1%
No 90% 99%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 12% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 68% 6%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 40% 1%
Oman 50% 2%
Qatar 73% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 30% 1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 40% 5%
No 60% 95%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 30% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 70% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 80% 2%
No 20% 98%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 22%
No 90% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 78%
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