Confirmed previous forecast
-0.294248
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 50 | 13 | 81 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 26 | 13 | 39 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 10:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
15%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Togo
76%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 10:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
70%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
60%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
99%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Estonia
10%
(0%)
Latvia
10%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
only a recession. global one
Why might you be wrong?
they might sell more oil or discover mines