RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	2%	+78%	+1%
No	20%	98%	-78%	-1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 10:21PM	7%	+3%	+1%
No	90%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 10:21PM	93%	-3%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	10%	2%	+8%	+1%
Latvia	10%	2%	+8%	+1%
Lithuania	10%	2%	+8%	+1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	2%	+78%	+0%
No	20%	98%	-78%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	10%	+20%	-3%
No	70%	90%	-20%	+3%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(11 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 10:21PM	9%	-4%	-3%
No	95%	Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Apr 30, 2025 10:21PM	91%	+4%	+3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	9%	+81%	-12%
No	10%	91%	-81%	+12%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	30%	1%	+29%	-1%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	60%	2%	+58%	-1%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	99%	0%	+99%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:21PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	9%	11%	-2%	-5%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	76%	33%	+43%	+7%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 10:22PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	31%	6%	+25%	-1%
No	69%	94%	-25%	+1%

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season