RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	0.34385
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	0.08998
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.294248
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	-0.001171
Jan 9, 2025 02:00PM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)	-0.400249
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.299105
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?	0.032508
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	0.010563
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	0.353462
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)	-0.147062
Aug 2, 2024 05:29AM	Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?	-0.007707
Jul 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024)	1.372246
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	0.050329
Apr 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)	0.263736
Apr 1, 2024 04:00PM	What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?	0.576226
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024)	0.044723
Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)	0.104686
Feb 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	0.086787
Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.003513
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.016081

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

0.34385

Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

0.08998

Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

-0.294248