Turkey does not want to upset NATO/U.S. too much. U.S. will maintain commitments (we are still in the Balkans, how many years later).
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Cybersecurity
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Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
New U.S. administration shifts policies in area.
War in Middle East shifts such that Arab states or Syria need to realign forces.
War in Ukraine shifts signficantly that Russia support to Syria or Arab states can alter conflict.
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Why do you think you're right?
Russia has reportedly commited lots of cyber attacks, outcomes (such as kinetic effect) from cyber intrusion may not be intended or understood by attacker, Ukraine war may be going worse than expected - need to shift it's balance/support,
Why might you be wrong?
Russia concerned of Article 5 invocation, Russia hyperfocused on resourcing war in Ukraine. Russia isn't directly involved as described above to keep plausible deniability