0.322002
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
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The most acute threat to Putin's power in past 20+ years seems to have been the Wagner revolt stemming from some popular opinion that Russia was losing momentum in the Ukraine war. Lately Russia has been gaining ground in Ukraine and the US has been too distracted in Middle East and with 2024 president election politics to focus on Ukraine. In addition, Alexi Navalny just passed away in prison with little internal dissent, and the other leading opposition candidate is barred from being on the ballot in the next election I see little threat - politically or militarily to Putin's rule. Baring an unforeseen health episode, Putin will continue to be president past 1 May 2024.