Even if they got the blueprints straight from ASML they still couldn't build it, couldn't source the lasers, couldn't source the mirrors, etc. Forget about it.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
32%
(+28%)
Yes
Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025
68%
(-28%)
No
Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025
Moving up due to Yi-Lightning.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
90%
(+10%)
No
Dropping it based on how the war is progressing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Argentina
25%
Bolivia
15%
Ecuador
Bolivia is the most vulnerable for sure, but they've also got elections in the middle of next year and the government will almost certainly do whatever it can to avoid default by that time. Miley is a wildcard, hard to make a judgment in his case, and that's the one I'm most uncertain about. LatAm bonds have rallied in general, and the Fed is cutting again which should have some downstream effects for LatAm economies.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026
98%
No
Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026
Kinetic effects seem extremely unlikely, and Russia is not exactly in a good position to escalate against NATO at the moment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025
96%
No
Oct 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2025
Where are they going to get the compute?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
17%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
83%
More than or equal to 28%
Based on recent projections.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Actuarial factors alone are a few %. And Prigozhin showed that the coup potential is there.
Files
Upped a bit