Actuarial factors alone are a few %. And Prigozhin showed that the coup potential is there.
-0.851339
Relative Brier Score
560
Forecasts
167
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 8 | 10 | 90 | 19 | 1194 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 |
Questions Forecasted | 8 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 161 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 330 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
Slightly down
Files
New Badge
Based on recent projections.