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21st
Accuracy Rank

cassandra

About:

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All Time Stats

-0.678146

Relative Brier Score

1194

Forecasts

330

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 8 10 90 19 1194
Comments 0 0 1 0 127
Questions Forecasted 8 10 34 11 161
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 0 330
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Science & Technology, China Politics, Relations, and Technology, Microelectronic Technologies, Artificial Intelligence

Most Active Topics:
Microelectronics, Manufacturing, EA College Tournament, semiconductors, Mission: Diplomacy

New Prediction
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
cassandra made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
17%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
83%
More than or equal to 28%

Based on recent projections.

Files
New Prediction

Actuarial factors alone are a few %. And Prigozhin showed that the coup potential is there.

Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
cassandra made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Time

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
cassandra made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
cassandra made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
96% (0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
cassandra made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
cassandra made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
cassandra made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-1%)
Yes
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
99% (+1%)
No
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
Slightly down
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New Badge
cassandra earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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