Even if they got the blueprints straight from ASML they still couldn't build it, couldn't source the lasers, couldn't source the mirrors, etc. Forget about it.
-0.851339
Relative Brier Score
560
Forecasts
167
Upvotes
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Definitions |
Moving up due to Yi-Lightning.
Dropping it based on how the war is progressing.
Bolivia is the most vulnerable for sure, but they've also got elections in the middle of next year and the government will almost certainly do whatever it can to avoid default by that time. Miley is a wildcard, hard to make a judgment in his case, and that's the one I'm most uncertain about. LatAm bonds have rallied in general, and the Fed is cutting again which should have some downstream effects for LatAm economies.
Kinetic effects seem extremely unlikely, and Russia is not exactly in a good position to escalate against NATO at the moment.
Active Forecaster
Where are they going to get the compute?
Based on recent projections.
Actuarial factors alone are a few %. And Prigozhin showed that the coup potential is there.
Upped a bit