18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022) 0.000045
Aug 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000252
Aug 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Sep 2022 -0.062533
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22? 0.000876
Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022) 0.000058
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022? 0.011817
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 -0.007168
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022? 0.122268
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022? 0.044764
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022? 0.005153
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM UTC How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022? -0.034513
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? 0.124498
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022? -0.050525
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.047685
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) 0.007557
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? 0.056354
Jul 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 17, 2022 and Jul 17, 2022) 0.001587
Jul 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Aug 2022 0.010945
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022? 0.053597
Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022) 0.001493
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