18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 0.05887
Jul 01, 2022 01:33PM UTC By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO? -0.047511
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022? 0.0427
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM UTC On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised? 0.232814
Jun 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between May 17, 2022 and Jun 17, 2022) 0.000868
Jun 15, 2022 01:12PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jul 2022 -0.006943
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022) 0.000658
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022? -0.230855
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? -0.018449
May 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 17, 2022 and May 17, 2022) 0.0
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022) -0.000767
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.0313
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD? -0.184858
Apr 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 17, 2022 and Apr 17, 2022) -0.002239
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) -0.024703
Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Mar 17, 2022) -0.0092
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? 0.078944
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.034458
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? -0.002599
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) 0.000406
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