18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? -0.079032
Feb 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024) 0.000561
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.000001
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024) 0.0002
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? -0.018996
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined? -0.250935
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? 0.113214
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen? -0.00135
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran? 0.012361
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan? -0.003721
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo? -0.167366
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record? -0.056335
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces? -0.000571
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India? 0.001611
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? 0.000194
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? -0.000388
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? 0.003016
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) -0.001165
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) 0.012097
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? -0.121136
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