RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:48AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	11%	-7%	-3%
No	96%	89%	+7%	+3%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:52AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	2%	6%	-4%	-1%
More than or equal to 28%	98%	92%	+6%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	15%	-5%	-3%
No	90%	85%	+5%	+3%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:32AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:33AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	22%	+18%	-10%
No	60%	Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	78%	-18%	+10%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:06AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	97%	+3%	+1%
No	0%	3%	-3%	-1%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	37%	-32%	+1%
No	95%	63%	+32%	-1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:23AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	+1%
No	98%	95%	+3%	-1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:30AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	2%	4%	-2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

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