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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 27, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 3% 4%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 1% 1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 27, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 3%
No 97% Aug 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 97%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 27, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 27, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 27, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Aug 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 8%
No 99% Aug 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 92%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 27, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 05:34PM UTC
(6 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 90% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Oct 30, 2024 87%
No 10% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Oct 30, 2024 13%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 05:36PM UTC
(6 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 Oct 30, 2024 6%
No 95% Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 Oct 30, 2024 94%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 05:37PM UTC
(6 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 85% Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 Oct 30, 2024 84%
No 15% Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 Oct 30, 2024 16%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 11:25PM UTC
(16 minutes ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 5%
No 98% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 95%
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