142nd
Accuracy Rank

coastbylight

About:

Show more
View All Badges »
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:36AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 0%
No 100% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 100%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:41AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 99% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 2% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 0% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 34%
No 90% 66%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 3% 3%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 1% 2%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 4%
No 97% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 96%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 2%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel