142nd
Accuracy Rank

coastbylight

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Forecasted Questions

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 6%
No 95% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 94%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:45AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 8%
No 98% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 92%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 25%
No 95% 75%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?​

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 32%
No 80% 68%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 04:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 75% 44%
No 25% 56%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 04:56PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 18%
No 95% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 82%
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