Forecasted Questions
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:36AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:36AM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 57% | -12% | +7% |
| No | 55% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 43% | +12% | -7% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 14% | +4% | -4% |
| No | 82% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 86% | -4% | +4% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 10, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
46 Forecasts
46 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 06:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 10, 2024 06:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 8% | -7% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 92% | +7% | +2% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:05PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:05PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 14% | 14% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 50% | 52% | -2% | +0% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 32% | 31% | +1% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 18% | 20% | -2% | +1% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 70% | 72% | -2% | -1% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 10% | 7% | +3% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2026 | Feb 14, 2025 | 12% | -7% | +3% |
| No | 95% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2026 | Feb 14, 2025 | 88% | +7% | -3% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |