52nd
Accuracy Rank

ctsats

Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis
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2025 Season Stats

0.021689

Relative Brier Score
1381600246810121416
Questions Forecasted
1110-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
Scored Questions

189

Forecasts

56

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreJanFebMarAprSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 47 556 189 998
Comments 1 22 341 151 1076
Questions Forecasted 1 14 29 16 56
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 5 263 56 1144
 Definitions
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
ctsats made their 55th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4% (-1%)
Yes
96% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Nvidia shares plunge amid $5.5bn hit over export rules to China - BBC, Apr 16

Shares in Nvidia plunged on Wednesday after the computer chip giant said it would be hit by £5.5bn (£4.2bn) in costs due to the US government tightening its export rules to China. [...]

Nvidia shares were down 6.5% in early trading on Wednesday. The Nasdaq exchange it is listed on was down 2.3%.

As of writing, Nvidia is ~450B below Apple.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Volatility

Files
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
ctsats made their 54th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Yes
95% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
ctsats made their 16th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
2% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
41% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
51% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
6% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
ctsats made their 25th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
ctsats made their 19th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (-2%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
93% (+2%)
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Lowering on the basis of arguments by @404_NOT_FOUND below

Files
Why might you be wrong?

n/a

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
ctsats made their 37th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
ctsats made their 29th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
12% (-1%)
Yes
88% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Passage of time, no relevant news

Files
Why might you be wrong?

n/a

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Less than 3 months remaining, this looks like < 0.5% now.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

n/a

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
ctsats made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
 
Files
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