As we speak, Nvidia is back at #2, albeit with a small margin from Apple: https://companiesmarketcap.com/
-0.24181
Relative Brier Score
411
Forecasts
384
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 48 | 472 | 411 | 732 |
| Comments | 5 | 26 | 396 | 321 | 877 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 20 | 44 | 32 | 53 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 21 | 510 | 384 | 1054 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(-3%)
Yes
58%
(+3%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
Elon Musk met Iran's UN ambassador in New York - BBC, Nov 15
Elon Musk met Iran's ambassador to the UN a day before he was made joint head of Donald Trump's new cost cutting department, the BBC's US partner CBS has confirmed.
The meeting took place at ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani 's residence in New York, with the aim of discussing how to ease tensions between the two nations, according to the New York Times which first reported the story.
It is not clear if President-elect Trump or his national security team were aware of the meeting.
Several of the recent appointees to Trump's national security team, including Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio are known Iran hawks, believing the US should take a tough stance against Iran.
The US does not have diplomatic relations with Tehran but a private meeting with Musk provided a workaround, allowing Iran to avoid a meeting with an American official, according to the New York Times.
The newspaper also said that Musk requested the meeting with the ambassador, and that it was described by Iranian officials as “positive” and “good news".
Iran ‘categorically denies’ UN envoy met Elon Musk - CNN, Nov 16
Iran’s foreign ministry denied that a meeting was held between the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations and Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person and close ally of US President-elect Donald Trump, Iranian state media reported Saturday.
The New York Times reported the meeting took place earlier this week, citing two Iranian officials. Associated Press also reported a meeting between the two, citing a US official briefed by a foreign colleague.
But Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei “categorically denied” that a meeting took place and was “surprised” by the coverage in US media, state-run IRNA said.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(+7%)
Yes
55%
(-7%)
No
Moving close to a coin toss; certainly both possible and plausible.
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New Prediction
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Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025
85%
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No
Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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Probability
Answer
11%
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89%
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Confirmed previous forecast
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25%
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75%
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Confirmed previous forecast
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1%
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99%
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Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister on X (Nov 9):
Iran is NOT after nuclear weapons, period. This is a policy based on Islamic teachings and our security calculations. Confidence-building is needed from both sides. It is not a one-way street
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
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Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister on X (Nov 9):
Iran is NOT after nuclear weapons, period. This is a policy based on Islamic teachings and our security calculations. Confidence-building is needed from both sides. It is not a one-way street
Files
New Comment
The world’s most capable open weight model is now made in China - ImportAI, Nov 11
The world’s best open weight model might now be Chinese – that’s the takeaway from a recent Tencent paper that introduces Hunyuan-Large, a MoE model with 389 billion parameters (52 billion activated). [...]
This paper seems generally very competent and sensible. The only key differentiator between this system and one trained in the West is compute – on the scaling law graph this model seems to come in somewhere between 10^24 and 10^25 flops of compute, whereas many Western frontier models are now sitting at between 10^25 and 10^26 flops. I think if this team of Tencent researchers had access to equivalent compute as Western counterparts then this wouldn’t just be a world class open weight model – it might be competitive with the far more experience proprietary models made by Anthropic, OpenAI, and so on.
Files
Increasing marginally as time passes.