RAND Forecasting Initiative

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 12:11PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Not before 2026	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
44 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026	Jan 13, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026	Jan 13, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
55 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026	Jan 13, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026	Jan 13, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	7%	-3%	0%
No	96%	93%	+3%	0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
47 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026	Jan 13, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026	Jan 13, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
56 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	3%	+0%	0%
No	97%	97%	+0%	0%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	7%	-3%	+0%
No	96%	93%	+3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
68 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

ctsats

Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis

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