RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 09:26AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	15%	+5%	+0%
No	80%	85%	-5%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 09:27AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 09:28AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	5%	+6%	+0%
No	89%	95%	-6%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 09:29AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025	Dec 2, 2024	15%	+0%	+4%
No	85%	Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025	Dec 2, 2024	85%	+0%	-4%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 09:29AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 09:29AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 11:58AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	11%	-8%	+0%
No	97%	89%	+8%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:36AM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	51%	-6%	+1%
No	55%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	49%	+6%	-1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(5 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	18%	+0%	+0%
No	82%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	82%	+0%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(1 hour ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	34%	27%	+7%	+0%
No	66%	73%	-7%	+0%

ctsats

Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis

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