Confirmed previous forecast
0.008313
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
5%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
0%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
85%
(0%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 5, 2022 12:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Oct 5, 2022 to Nov 5, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Putin's approval rating has not been below 65% since his ascension to the RF presidency. Since Putin has so much influence over the Russian information space, it is highly unlikely that approval will change dramatically in the next month.
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Why might you be wrong?
A massive geopolitical event could radically alter Putin's approval. But again, he has such much control over the information space that any event would likely be framed in his favor.
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