Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2024 04:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 02, 2024 04:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46% | 35% | +11% | -6% |
| No | 54% | 65% | -11% | +6% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 04:14PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 04:14PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 22% | -12% | -3% |
| No | 90% | Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 78% | +12% | +3% |