Tensions are simply too high right now to justify any Islamic country signing with Israel
-0.402617
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Top Forecaster - Feb 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2024 06:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024
99%
No
Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some countries may sign with Israel to gain favor with Israel's allies (the US)
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 3, 2024 05:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
49%
Yes
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
51%
No
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
The rebels have already demonstrated their ability to strike Israel and little has changed since they chose to attack.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Prevailing US sentiment suggests that they may not want to risk the US getting involved in striking back.
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New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Feb 13, 2024 04:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Nov 13, 2023 to May 13, 2024
97%
No
Nov 13, 2023 to May 13, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Any attack against Israel will be highly likely to provoke a response from not only the IDF but also the US Military. This could lead to a large scale global conflict which is to be avoided at all costs.
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Why might you be wrong?
Iran acts irrationally and without reason, their antisemetic rage may prove stronger than the many downsides of an attack against Israel.
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Why do you think you're right?
Africa has a long history of different coup's and current diplomatic relations and longstanding power holders are experiencing new social voices which they are increasingly unable to silence. The nature of a large election year in many countries around the world creates a more volatile political state.
Why might you be wrong?
Power hungry leaders in Africa may use tactics to silence their critics and create scenarios in which the individuals are unable to successfully execute a coup.