With Donald Trump in office, North Korea is likely strategizing to lower tensions with the western world and first step to doing so is not conducting tests.
0.150204
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025
97%
No
Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
North Korea continues to remain in high tensions with South Korea, they may want to intimidate.
Files
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Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Argentina
14%
Bolivia
14%
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Argentina stands as the most financially at risk given their credit history. However defaulting is still a ways out and their economy stands enough to support continuing to pay external debt.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictable circumstances might lead to Argentina suffering a loss of capital enough to suggest they would no longer be able to pay external debt.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 2, 2025 07:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Dec 2, 2024 to Jun 2, 2026
90%
No
Dec 2, 2024 to Jun 2, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is calculated in their efforts and a cyber attack that leads to loss of life would warrant a NATO response, additionally with a new US President Elect the Kremlin will want to improve relations with an individual whom they have had friendly relations with in the past.
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Why might you be wrong?
Russia might make an incredible error in their cyber ability and create a scenario with physical implications.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is a strong likelihood that the unique foreign policy tactics employed by the US would incentivise Russia to agree however they remain the ultimate power in Eastern Europe.
Why might you be wrong?
The higher probability is based on Russian leaders reflecting a willingness to work with US foreign policy.