Forecasted Questions
Participation in currently active questions
Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 2, 2024 04:05PM
(6 months ago)
Oct 2, 2024 04:05PM
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46% | 39% | +7% | -2% |
| No | 54% | 61% | -7% | +2% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 15, 2025 03:12PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 15, 2025 03:12PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 30% | 9% | +21% | -3% |
| Bolivia | 14% | 12% | +2% | -5% |
| Ecuador | 14% | 9% | +5% | -1% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2025 04:05PM
(23 days ago)
Feb 24, 2025 04:05PM
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025 | Mar 24, 2025 04:05PM | 6% | -3% | +3% |
| No | 97% | Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025 | Mar 24, 2025 04:05PM | 94% | +3% | -3% |
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2025 06:35PM
(6 days ago)
Mar 13, 2025 06:35PM
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 37% | +3% | +3% |
| No | 60% | 63% | -3% | -3% |