RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	0.150204
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.359948
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.003138
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM	Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)	-0.021284
Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)	0.0
Feb 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024)	0.0
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.024523
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.736479
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	0.144429
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.261283
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	0.250688
Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.0019
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	-0.004702
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.138948
Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	0.00107
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM	Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?	-0.036783
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.0
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.003886
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.0
Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	-0.001245

Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

0.150204

Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

-0.359948

May 1, 2024 04:01AM

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

0.003138

Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM

Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)

-0.021284