Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 07, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 07, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 07, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 03:57PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 07, 2024 03:57PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 95% | -5% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 04:35PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 07, 2024 04:35PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2025 | Nov 7, 2024 | 4% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 97% | Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2025 | Nov 7, 2024 | 96% | +1% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 07, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2025 | Nov 7, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2025 | Nov 7, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 07, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 10:43PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 09, 2024 10:43PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025 | Nov 9, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025 | Nov 9, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Oct 21, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Oct 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2025 | Jan 21, 2025 | 0% | +2% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 03:02PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Oct 21, 2024 03:02PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 11% | -9% | -4% |
| No | 98% | 89% | +9% | +4% |