139th
Accuracy Rank

geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum
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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Oct 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2025 Jan 21, 2025 0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 05:41PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 Jan 25, 2025 12%
No 85% Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 Jan 25, 2025 88%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 22%
No 96% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 78%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:08AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 1%
No 94% 99%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 6% 7%
Armenia 2% 2%
Georgia 8% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 35% 33%
No 65% 67%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 03:44PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 1%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 1% 1%
Saudi Arabia 1% 2%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 2% 2%
Latvia 2% 1%
Lithuania 2% 2%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 5%
No 93% 95%
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