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Relative Brier Score
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
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Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Though the West has previously played a significant role in leadership changes in Russia (then U.S.S.R), that was only to shift the territory from communistic to capitalistic. I believe 1) the likelihood of outside interference is low while a war in Ukraine continues to financially benefit Western oligarchs, and 2) Russia is unlikely to switch to non-Putin leadership without that outside interference. There is some small non-zero probability Putin will cease to be president for other reasons.
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