Adjusting my forecast.
I've reduced the probability for 3GPP adopting and integrating O-RAN Alliance specifications due to a lack of news on this front.
I've increased the probability for the O-RAN Alliance continuing to develop specifications independently. This tallies with most of the news related to this from the O-RAN Alliance, such as this recent press release: https://www.o-ran.org/press-releases/o-ran-alliance-global-plugfest-fall-2024-to-continue-supporting-the-open-ran-development
Lastly, I've reduced the probability of the O-RAN Alliance stopping development of its specifications to zero. This is because there is very little / no evidence to suggest they have any incentive to do so nor do they appear to be facing any obstacles in this regard.
Adjusting my forecast downwards on a "yes" answer to align with the crowd forecast.
Most evidence points to Huawei staying out of O-RAN as part of a broader strategy to maintain Chinese influence over the technology (via China Telecom's participation in the O-RAN Alliance) without engendering American attention.
However, as I pointed out in the comments for my latest forecast on a related question, there's a possibility that Huawei may embrace O-RAN as a way of staying in certain key markets in a compromise that would see it relegated to a role in less sensitive aspects of network infrastructure.