Maintaining my forecast.
Some interesting developments in the past month:
(1) A DoD report argues that a Taiwan invasion is not possible by 2027, citing the current state of PLA capabilities (source).
(2) A Vox piece on how an invasion of Taiwan by China might fall below the threshold of war due to the use of gray zone tactics.
Why do you think you're right?
(1) Resources - it's unclear how the DPRK would balance preparing for a nuclear test vs its current support of Russia's invasion of Ukraine - on top of the other usual budgetary pull factors that any functioning state has to reckon with.
(2) Uncertainty around ROK and US responses - particularly given the recent impeachment and the incoming Trump administration.
The timeframe of the question is key here. If we're looking beyond June 2025, the picture could be a little different, especially once the DPRK is able to capitalize on its support of Russia in Ukraine.
Why might you be wrong?
(1) The DPRK could gain access to Russian testing facilities in return for its support in Ukraine. There are already some signals that things are headed this way due to an apparent shift in Russia's stance at the UN regarding the disarmament of the DPRK: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/us-alarmed-russia-close-to-accepting-nuclear-armed-north-korea
(2) The DPRK has the capability to conduct a 7th nuclear test - the question of when it happens could therefore be driven more by politics than resource constraints.
https://beyondparallel.csis.org/recent-activity-observed-at-punggye-ri-nuclear-test-facility-2/