Just in: strong words from Netanyahu
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New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 09:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
94%
(+13%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
6%
(-13%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 08:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
96%
(+12%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
4%
(-12%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Just in: strong words from Netanyahu
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 11:23AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
98%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
Non-state actors, small scale, example of Soleimani.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
Togo
56%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Some are slightly underestimating the entrepreneurial mercenary spirit. A fun adventure in Africa seems like a nice bone for Putin to throw at distinguished soldiers to boost morale. The cash would also be welcome. Western countries seem to increasingly shirk from Africa, afraid of colonialist accusations.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 10:41AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
98%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
Just the notion of Israel strong arming Lebanon into 'normalizing relations' as part of a peace deal does not seem impossible. Having a normalizing deal (sweetened with US cash) with a poorer Muslim majority country that doesn't care that much for a quick global PR win sounds like something Trump might go for (à la Abraham accords).
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
90%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Health/age and what about an Israeli assasination? Market 5% seems too low.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Just him dying has a likelihood of about 1%.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 07:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
96%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
A temporary blockade does not seem too out of realm of possibility.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 07:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
84%
(+9%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
16%
(-9%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Arbitrage
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 07:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
81%
(+7%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
19%
(-7%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
I'm updating to stay slightly 'ahead of the curve'.
Files