Just in: strong words from Netanyahu
-0.014106
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Africa
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 09:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
94%
(+13%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
6%
(-13%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 08:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
96%
(+12%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
4%
(-12%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Just in: strong words from Netanyahu
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 11:23AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
98%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
Non-state actors, small scale, example of Soleimani.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
Togo
56%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Some are slightly underestimating the entrepreneurial mercenary spirit. A fun adventure in Africa seems like a nice bone for Putin to throw at distinguished soldiers to boost morale. The cash would also be welcome. Western countries seem to increasingly shirk from Africa, afraid of colonialist accusations.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2024 10:41AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
98%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
Just the notion of Israel strong arming Lebanon into 'normalizing relations' as part of a peace deal does not seem impossible. Having a normalizing deal (sweetened with US cash) with a poorer Muslim majority country that doesn't care that much for a quick global PR win sounds like something Trump might go for (à la Abraham accords).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
90%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Health/age and what about an Israeli assasination? Market 5% seems too low.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Just him dying has a likelihood of about 1%.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 07:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
96%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
A temporary blockade does not seem too out of realm of possibility.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 07:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
84%
(+9%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
16%
(-9%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Arbitrage
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 07:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
81%
(+7%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
19%
(-7%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
I'm updating to stay slightly 'ahead of the curve'.
Files