I don't believe anything in Russia is truly independent. I have no faith that the Levada Center would be allowed to publish a high unfavorable rating of Putin and continue to exist. The fact that his approval rating only "bottomed out" near 80% since the invasion of Ukraine and after people were being conscripted into the military leads me to believe that there is little that could possibly tank his approval.
0.001568
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 9, 2022 07:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Nov 9, 2022 to Dec 9, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I do not understand how the Levada Center is measuring. And I have little understanding of how citizens on the ground in Russia are really feeling about Putin, outside of news reports of people fleeing to avoid military conscription.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Putin needs the support of his people, who are already upset by conscriptions. If Russia tests or uses a weapon, the negative impact on his own people would be so severe, he could not maintain public support.
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know what on-the-ground activity might actually be occurring around readiness for a test.