Nvidia has now dropped to third place.
0.375028
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
43
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 9 | 235 | 43 | 1237 |
| Comments | 2 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 513 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 9 | 49 | 23 | 183 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 74 | 15 | 491 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
90%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There has been a lot of volatility, and Nvidida has had a long history of outperforming the market.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(+1%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2025 to Mar 16, 2026
88%
(-1%)
No
Mar 16, 2025 to Mar 16, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Khamenei turns 86 next month. I'm basically doing this based on the actuarial tables plus a percentage point. There's no indication that there are any risks to his rule at the moment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel and the US could be doing things behind the scenes, one never knows.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-6%)
Yes
97%
(+6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could happen at any time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think we're very unlikely to see this resolution criteria be met. If it did happen, there is a strong amount of scientific caution that may prevent the sort of consensus that this question requires. For example, I did not realize that there were still doubts about the 1977 Russian flu, but I think with the fact that the WHO at the time did not accept the human bioengineering origin of the flu and the fact that any such biological events would have a lot of opacity around it, I would be surprised if we saw this happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may not be fully thinking about Panzootic and Epiphytotic scenarios.
Files
New Comment
The resolution criteria section seems fine to me. However, I think @DimaKlenchin raises an excellent point that this may be under 10% and therefore too easy of a question. Maybe have it be by 31 December 2035 or 2040 to make it more of a challenge for forecasters.
Files
New Comment
I agree with @Benjamin-Shindel that the question of judging whether a ceasefire holds can often be a fool's errand in modern times, especially when you've got irregulars and militias involved. I might suggest not even having it be part of the resolution at all. It could be a separate question if you want. But right now the question of whether they agree to a ceasefire is one specific and testable proposition. Ideally forecasting questions involve one testable proposition at a time, in my opinion. I could be wrong, but that's how I view it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I'll come in above the Crowd a little bit on this. There was just an agreement for an energy infrastructure ceasefire, and there is definitely the sense that things are coming to an end soon.
Why might you be wrong?
There's big human element to the negotiations, and it may be nearly impossible to predict that aspect. From Putin's perspective, there's not a lot of domestic political cost to continuing the war like there would be if Russia were a democracy. Russia is reported to be making a lot of aggressive territorial demands.