Confirmed previous forecast
-1.396084
Relative Brier Score
1172
Forecasts
471
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 22 | 323 | 250 | 1172 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 53 | 42 | 471 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 20 | 67 | 43 | 171 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 116 | 83 | 471 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
EA College Tournament
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(+21%)
Yes
39%
(-21%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Nvidia has taken the lead since the last time I looked at this, and they have intense growth as far as the eye can see.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's not like I have a unique insight about Nvidia here, so if they have any sort of turn of bad luck, they could have a sharp downturn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Probably should zero this out soon, but I don't want to be overconfident.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
As Warren Buffett puts it, "You can't produce a baby in a month by getting nine women pregnant." There are a lot of complexities, a lot of moving parts in the R&D to get to that point, and the timeframe is likely just too short.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+4%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025
90%
(-4%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025
I'm way below the Crowd, so I'd better move up a little. The Chinese models still have a long way to go to break into the top 3, however,.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
The plan is still November 2025. (source) It would really be extraordinary if the elections were moved forward, so I'll have this as under 1%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Kuwait
0%
(-1%)
Oman
0%
(-1%)
Qatar
0%
(-1%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(-1%)
Tunisia
I don't think this is happening anytime soon. A couple recent stories:
Saudi crown prince accuses Israel of committing ‘collective genocide’ in Gaza
Oman rejects Israel normalisation, slams 'barbaric war on Gaza'
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
(-1%)
Yes
76%
(+1%)
No
Slight adjustment on the passage of time. I have not seen any news that would cause me to want to increase this probability yet.
Files