Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Sep 11, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 14, 2024 01:43PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Sep 14, 2024 01:43PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Sep 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 8% | -5% | +3% |
No | 97% | Sep 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 92% | +5% | -3% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2024 10:07PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 15, 2024 10:07PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025 | Oct 22, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025 | Oct 22, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 07:17PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 07:17PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 10% | 9% | +1% | -2% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 6% | 7% | -1% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 07:23PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 07:23PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 13% | 22% | -9% | -7% |
No | 87% | 78% | +9% | +7% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 07:25PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 07:25PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 08:48PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 08:48PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 25% | 33% | -8% | +8% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 40% | -10% | +1% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 6% | -2% | -1% |
No | 96% | 94% | +2% | +1% |