Forecasted Questions
Participation in currently active questions
Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2025 11:47PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 24, 2025 11:47PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 10% | 0% | +10% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 15% | 5% | +10% | -6% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 70% | 81% | -11% | +3% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 4% | 13% | -9% | +3% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 1% | 1% | +0% | +1% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 38% | -14% | +1% |
| No | 76% | 62% | +14% | -1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 10:22PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 26, 2025 10:22PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | -3% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +3% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 05:50AM
(13 days ago)
Mar 20, 2025 05:50AM
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | +2% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:57PM
(6 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 07:57PM
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 12% | 11% | +1% | +0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 22% | 29% | -7% | -3% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 09:27PM
(4 days ago)
Mar 29, 2025 09:27PM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 13% | 7% | +6% | -1% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 32% | 35% | -3% | +0% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 40% | 44% | -4% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 12% | 11% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 09:27PM
(4 days ago)
Mar 29, 2025 09:27PM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025 | Apr 29, 2025 09:27PM | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025 | Apr 29, 2025 09:27PM | 98% | +1% | -1% |