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johnnycaffeine

John Bash
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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:09PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 4% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 3% 6%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 01:46PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 8%
No 99% 92%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:45AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:46AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 25% 24%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 30% 39%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:46AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 5%
No 96% 95%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:46AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 5%
No 96% 95%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:47AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 20% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 22%
No 80% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 78%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 02:51AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 50% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 57%
No 50% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 43%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 02:51AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 1%
No 99% Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 99%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 02:51AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%
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