Confirmed previous forecast
-1.260566
Relative Brier Score
517
Forecasts
252
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 22 | 323 | 250 | 1172 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 53 | 42 | 471 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 20 | 67 | 43 | 171 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 116 | 83 | 471 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(+21%)
Yes
39%
(-21%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Nvidia has taken the lead since the last time I looked at this, and they have intense growth as far as the eye can see.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's not like I have a unique insight about Nvidia here, so if they have any sort of turn of bad luck, they could have a sharp downturn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Probably should zero this out soon, but I don't want to be overconfident.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
As Warren Buffett puts it, "You can't produce a baby in a month by getting nine women pregnant." There are a lot of complexities, a lot of moving parts in the R&D to get to that point, and the timeframe is likely just too short.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+4%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025
90%
(-4%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025
I'm way below the Crowd, so I'd better move up a little. The Chinese models still have a long way to go to break into the top 3, however,.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
The plan is still November 2025. (source) It would really be extraordinary if the elections were moved forward, so I'll have this as under 1%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Kuwait
0%
(-1%)
Oman
0%
(-1%)
Qatar
0%
(-1%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(-1%)
Tunisia
I don't think this is happening anytime soon. A couple recent stories:
Saudi crown prince accuses Israel of committing ‘collective genocide’ in Gaza
Oman rejects Israel normalisation, slams 'barbaric war on Gaza'
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
(-1%)
Yes
76%
(+1%)
No
Slight adjustment on the passage of time. I have not seen any news that would cause me to want to increase this probability yet.
Files