josesl16

His age

Gut feel based on past data

Wow just realized that this question is quite confusing, LHS-1140b was found to be potentially habitable on 20 March? But is apparently already included in the catalog at the time the question was launched.

The Wikipedia page seems to be doing its own thing, with only 66 listed, some removed additions staying, & some missing, & some new ones already added.

And then the question states until 31 December when it's probably until later than 31 January?

Anyways, TOI-904c surely counts as one found. Gliese 12b was in the news and is maayybe a candidate, but HWC's cataloguer, Arecibo, hasn't said a peep. I'm guessing it's either under investigation or has been rejected, although it's already in the wikipedia page. Looking at TESS's journal release, it seems there is a decent chance to be a future addition soon. Speculoos-3b looks a lot shakier, orbiting an ultracool red dwarf at a 3rd of distance of Mercury & the Sun.

I'll count it as 0.75 points for now. So we're at 1.75 4 months in, and there's 5 months left until we find the other 3.25 candidates, & another month(or unspecified amount of time more) to wait for those candidates to be ruled in/out. I'm reducing my forecast slightly.

(Also saw cstats' recent clarification on LHS-1140b, thanks)

Still have a good feeling that this will happen sooner or later, so much pressure on Israel

It's almost June, detecting AI in text is still not reliable enough to the point that automatic generated labels in those platforms are a good idea

Russia is still trying to gain ground in Ukraine, so chances seem low that they'll invade another 1 in just 3 years.

Out of the 3, Lithuania does not share a border with Russia and so Russia would have to invade through Belarus.

Estonia share less land border which can be used as defensive checkpoints. Latvia seems to be the most lucrative to invade at 1st glance.

2 weeks left, less than 0.5% chance of something happening.