Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(0%)
Yes
58%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-48%)
Yes
100%
(+48%)
No
Updating forecast after the October clarification.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
His age
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
Yes
58%
No
Gut feel based on past data
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Although pandemic & panzootic declarations happen with some frequency, for them to be declared, moreover publicly, as due to originating directly from human bioengineering activity, seems unprecedented.
Why might you be wrong?
Freak accidents, mostly.