Confirmed previous forecast
-0.450246
Relative Brier Score
121
Forecasts
76
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 121 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
U.S.-China ,
Science & Technology,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Research,
Industry
Most Active Topics:
Mission: AI Advancement,
EA College Tournament,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Time and no news.
(And quadratic scoring treating 1% and 0% similarly if wrong.)
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 28, 2023 01:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(-10%)
Yes
Jul 28, 2023 to Jan 28, 2024
40% ➛ 30% to correct for 6-months. See previous comment.
Files
1% ➛ 0% -- nearing deadline and no reason to expect a year-end announcement like that.