Confirmed previous forecast
0.012324
Relative Brier Score
1763
Forecasts
106
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 72 | 229 | 2127 | 1664 | 3427 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 46 |
| Questions Forecasted | 41 | 43 | 98 | 70 | 126 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 90 | 61 | 167 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
55%
(0%)
No
Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-2%)
Togo
40%
(-5%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Adjusting
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
99%
(0%)
More than or equal to 28%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Just over 3 weeks left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-3%)
Yes
92%
(+3%)
No
Recent clarification actually reduces the time window for this question.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025
91%
(0%)
No
Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files