Confirmed previous forecast
0.012324
Relative Brier Score
1763
Forecasts
106
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 26 | 162 | 2044 | 1691 | 3454 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 46 |
| Questions Forecasted | 26 | 42 | 95 | 70 | 126 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 86 | 61 | 167 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-1%)
Yes
60%
(+1%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
1%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Time
Files