Throwing in the towel .... I was wrong on this one.
0.012324
Relative Brier Score
1763
Forecasts
106
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 34 | 143 | 2166 | 1400 | 3163 |
| Comments | 1 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 43 |
| Questions Forecasted | 34 | 35 | 89 | 60 | 116 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 6 | 7 | 112 | 57 | 163 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+35%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
0%
(-35%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+40%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
0%
(-40%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Throwing in the towel .... I was wrong on this one.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
86%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
With the last round of IDF attacks ... No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
1%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(+1%)
Yes
88%
(-1%)
No
Small adjustment. NVIDIA is still about 500B away from the top spot
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
As I understand it, this question ends in April 1st, 2025, which means it runs until April 1st 2026 - 19 more months. Am I reading this right?
As such, the odds of a YES outcome due to "normal" mortality should be increasing with time. As many of you have pointed out, Khamenei is 85 years old and though he surely has access to the best possible medical care, time is unforgiven to us all and we still have a year and a half to run, although we are only forecasting for the next year.
As I see this, the odds of a YES outcome can be derived from the mortality odds plus other (eg. coup, voluntary stepping down or assassination). In the short term, these seem very unlikely as he seams to have a strong grip on Iran's internal life and any foreign attempt implies a massive risk of an all-right Iranian involvement in the middle east war,.
Good luck to all.
Yes I understand that we are forecasting one year at a time (maybe I didn't make that clear). My point is that the odds should increase with time (if all other aspects remain unchanged - admittedly unlikely, specially now) and be fairly linear (I mean, with known information, the odds of next year death should be lower, but not too distant, from the odds of a death 1 to 2 years from now, but not next year).
Good luck.