Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2024 08:31AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 26, 2024 08:31AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 9% | +46% | -65% |
| No | 45% | 91% | -46% | +65% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 11:49AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 11:49AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:30AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:30AM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 10% | 1% | +9% | -2% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 27% | 8% | +20% | -20% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 27% | 27% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 26% | 37% | -11% | +8% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 10% | 27% | -17% | +14% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:41AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:41AM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 38% | +12% | -4% |
| No | 50% | 62% | -12% | +4% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 15% | 24% | -9% | -3% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 20% | 39% | -19% | +2% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 01:13PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 01:13PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 21% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 75% | 79% | -4% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 09:48AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 09:48AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025 | Feb 18, 2025 | 22% | -7% | +0% |
| No | 85% | Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025 | Feb 18, 2025 | 78% | +7% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |