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michalbod

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 26, 2024 08:31AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 55% 15%
No 45% 85%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 10:59AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 8%
No 92% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 92%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:31AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 23%
No 75% 77%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:31AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 4%
No 99% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 96%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:45AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 2% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 1% 7%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:49AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 1% 8%
Armenia 0% 2%
Georgia 5% 4%
Kazakhstan 0% 2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 99%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:55AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 21%
No 95% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 79%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%
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