Forecasted Questions
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 10:52AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 10:52AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 10:53AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 10:53AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 10:55AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 10:55AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:30AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:30AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 10% | 5% | +5% | +1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 27% | 26% | +1% | -2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 27% | 27% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 26% | 29% | -3% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 10% | 13% | -3% | +0% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:41AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:41AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 44% | +6% | +2% |
| No | 50% | 56% | -6% | -2% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 15% | 25% | -10% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 20% | 35% | -15% | -2% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 08:45AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 08:45AM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | 27% | +6% | +2% |
| No | 67% | 73% | -6% | -2% |