-0.032788
Relative Brier Score
269
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 9 | 45 | 332 | 269 | 941 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
Questions Forecasted | 9 | 16 | 46 | 30 | 81 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 28 | 19 | 100 |
Definitions |
Increasing based on coma rumours. Even if not confirmed may signal some health issues or preparation for transition of power. there are some news circulating that his son was choosen as new supreame leader.
Incresing due to Trump election and his potential picks for Gov roles which point to rather hawkish stance against Iran .From the other side Trump usually underlines how he is avoidig wars. So I believe he will be hard on Iran but below war. Also for Irans best interest it is best to avoid direct confrontation with US.
One wildcard is Natanyahu stance who may feel emboldened to strike Iran, howaver even direct hit on Iran's oil or nuclear facilities may not resolve question as yes due to resolution criteria.
In past years Iran was directly targeting Israel with missles but it did not trigger war declaration by neither side.
Right now Nvidia is 7% ahead of apple and 14% ahead Microsoft. which makes me think there is at least 50% chance of Nvidia being on top in half a year
Nvidia inches higher than Apple prior to Quarterly rsults. Last quarter good financial results trigerred selloff for being not good enough, even if repeted this time there is still plenty of time till resolution date.