Confirmed previous forecast
-0.03273
Relative Brier Score
223
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 16 | 36 | 358 | 223 | 895 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 14 | 47 | 28 | 79 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 96 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Gap decreased slightly since my last Forecast with 19% behind APPLE and 7% behind MSFT but still long way to go.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Another visit of high Russian official, this time prime minister to Iran
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russian-premier-arrives-in-iran-s-capital-tehran-on-official-visit/3346305
Hovewer I still am sceptical if above equipment will arrive before 2/1/2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
It is highly unlikely at the time when Israel is bombing multiple locations in Middle east and timeframe for deescalation is too short.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
It looks likely that at some point there will be land invasion by IDF into at least some parts of Lebanon to try to finish off weekened Hezbollah. However I think that it will still not rise possibility of Iran targeting directly US forces as they will still try to avoid direct confrontation and US involvement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-5%)
Yes
75%
(+5%)
No
Reducing for passage of time. I do not see much incentive for Huawei and China to invest into O-Ran initiative, but timeframe of the question is quite long and bar for Yes seams quite low as it is just announcment therefore I am close to consensus.
Files