70th
Accuracy Rank

michalbod

About:
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-0.032788

Relative Brier Score

269

Forecasts

19

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 9 45 332 269 941
Comments 0 1 4 4 10
Questions Forecasted 9 16 46 30 81
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 28 19 100
 Definitions
New Prediction

Nvidia inches higher than Apple prior to Quarterly rsults.  Last quarter good financial results trigerred selloff for being  not good enough, even if repeted this time there is still plenty of time till resolution date.

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New Prediction
michalbod
made their 27th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
0% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
michalbod
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
99% (0%)
Yes
1% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
michalbod
made their 24th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
michalbod
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
michalbod
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (+17%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
75% (-17%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025

Increasing based on coma rumours. Even if not confirmed may signal some health issues or preparation for transition of power. there are some news circulating that his son was choosen as new supreame leader.

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New Prediction
michalbod
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (+10%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
85% (-10%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025

Incresing due to Trump election and his potential picks for Gov roles which point to rather hawkish stance against Iran .From the other side Trump usually underlines how he is avoidig wars. So I believe he will be hard on Iran but below war. Also for Irans best interest it is best to avoid direct confrontation with US. 

One wildcard is Natanyahu stance who may feel emboldened to strike Iran, howaver even direct hit on Iran's oil or nuclear facilities may not resolve question as yes due to resolution criteria. 

In past years Iran was directly targeting Israel with missles but it did not trigger war declaration by neither side.

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New Prediction

Right now Nvidia is 7% ahead of apple and 14% ahead Microsoft. which makes me think there is at least 50% chance of Nvidia being on top in half a year

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