RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2024 11:30AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Sep 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	8%	-6%	+2%
No	98%	Sep 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	92%	+6%	-2%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:09AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	5%	+3%	+1%
No	92%	Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	95%	-3%	-1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:10AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:48AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	30%	33%	-3%	+2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	20%	40%	-20%	+1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:34PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	25%	+0%	-1%
No	75%	75%	+0%	+1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:38PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	2%	9%	-7%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	1%	7%	-6%	0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	1%	7%	-6%	0%
Armenia	0%	1%	-1%	0%
Georgia	0%	3%	-3%	0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	2%	4%	-2%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

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