RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2024 08:31AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	9%	+46%	-65%
No	45%	91%	-46%	+65%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 11:49AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	1%	7%	-6%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 11:51AM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:30AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	10%	1%	+9%	-2%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	27%	7%	+20%	-20%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	27%	27%	+0%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	26%	37%	-11%	+9%
More than or equal to 90	10%	27%	-17%	+14%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:41AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	38%	+12%	-4%
No	50%	62%	-12%	+4%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	15%	24%	-9%	-3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	20%	39%	-19%	+2%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 01:13PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	21%	+4%	+0%
No	75%	79%	-4%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 09:48AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	22%	-7%	+0%
No	85%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	78%	+7%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 09:52AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	13%	+12%	+3%
No	75%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	87%	-12%	-3%

michalbod

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