Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2024 11:30AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 17, 2024 11:30AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Sep 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2025 | Dec 17, 2024 | 8% | -6% | +2% |
No | 98% | Sep 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2025 | Dec 17, 2024 | 92% | +6% | -2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:09AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 09:09AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 8% | Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025 | Dec 24, 2024 | 5% | +3% | +1% |
No | 92% | Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025 | Dec 24, 2024 | 95% | -3% | -1% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:10AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 09:10AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:48AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 09:48AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 30% | 33% | -3% | +2% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 20% | 40% | -20% | +1% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:34PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 03:34PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 25% | 25% | +0% | -1% |
No | 75% | 75% | +0% | +1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:38PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 03:38PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Saudi Arabia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 2% | 9% | -7% | +0% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 1% | 7% | -6% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | +0% |
Armenia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Georgia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Odesa | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |