It seems that the russian goverment has been supressing the protests well but it seems onlikey with moblisation that people will not go out in the streets in some level
0.087458
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 200
38%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
24%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
10%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
5%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
19%
More than or equal to 1000
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 24, 2022 06:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Oct 24, 2022 to Nov 24, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Putin knows that the use of nuclear weapons is a massive escalation which would lead to global isolation and due to the location of the front if they were to be used on Ukraine soldiers and military equipment there would be Russian civilians who were killed by the radiation which would lead to massive discontent among everyone but the hardest core hardlines.
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Why might you be wrong?
Putin may want to ward of more western arms shipments to Ukraine by only testing a nuclear weapon with the hope this deters arms shipment or Ukraine could make massive gains and take land that is internationally recognized as part of Russia led to Russia declaring a total war
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
I believe that there may be a coup quite or loud by discontented figures in the Russian elite. Seeing as many Oligarces have died recently there may be more discontent or I belive more likely the rest of the powerplays have fallen in line
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Why do you think you're right?
I think no one in Russia wants a war with nato and the odds of an accident having 25 fatalities are very unlikely the only way this could foreseeably happen is with the navy which is in a very poor state and even if there is another dogger bank I doute that they will kill over 25
Why might you be wrong?