nromero

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Forecasts 0 0 2 2 16
Comments 0 0 2 2 11
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nromero
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
nromero
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 3, 2024 01:39AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
90%
No
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Xi is seeing what's going on in Russia and Ukraine at the moment, as well as AUKUS buildup in the Pacific. Even with its inside political stirrings, the CCP knows that the US will most likely act in some regard, either for democracy, semiconductors, something else, or some combination.
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Why might you be wrong?

Xi and others may try to take advantage of whatever political chaos may ensue post election. The recent ICBM launching into the wider Pacific may be a bad omen of things to come.

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nromero
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Important for shipping lanes, China will force Djibouti's hand even as some African countries are starting to wise up about debt-trap diplomacy and other similar practices the country is using across the continent

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Why might you be wrong?

Potential Xi fall from power, economic downturn might signal contraction of Chinese economic expansion in the developing world.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The only way that would happen is if the artist didn't reveal that they had used AI-generated vocals, and everyone believed they had come from a real person.

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Why might you be wrong?

Perhaps AI-generated vocals will be more widely accepted in a year's time

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New Prediction
nromero
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Less than 7%
7% (0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
21% (0%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62% (0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
6% (0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
nromero
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
nromero
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (0%)
Less than 20%
60% (0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
20% (0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
nromero
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 7%
7%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
21%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
6%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?

Despite recent developments in, for example, Bakhmut, I think things will continue to be largely in stalemate

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Why might you be wrong?

If unexpected top-level government changes occur in the next half year or so, instability on either side could tip the scales and lead the conflict out of a stalemate

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nromero
earned a new badge:

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