Important for shipping lanes, China will force Djibouti's hand even as some African countries are starting to wise up about debt-trap diplomacy and other similar practices the country is using across the continent
1.957648
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Potential Xi fall from power, economic downturn might signal contraction of Chinese economic expansion in the developing world.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The only way that would happen is if the artist didn't reveal that they had used AI-generated vocals, and everyone believed they had come from a real person.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps AI-generated vocals will be more widely accepted in a year's time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Less than 7%
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62%
(0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than 20%
60%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 7%
7%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
21%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
6%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Despite recent developments in, for example, Bakhmut, I think things will continue to be largely in stalemate
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If unexpected top-level government changes occur in the next half year or so, instability on either side could tip the scales and lead the conflict out of a stalemate
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Xi and others may try to take advantage of whatever political chaos may ensue post election. The recent ICBM launching into the wider Pacific may be a bad omen of things to come.