The only way that would happen is if the artist didn't reveal that they had used AI-generated vocals, and everyone believed they had come from a real person.
1.247833
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps AI-generated vocals will be more widely accepted in a year's time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Less than 7%
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62%
(0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than 20%
60%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 7%
7%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
21%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
62%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
6%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Despite recent developments in, for example, Bakhmut, I think things will continue to be largely in stalemate
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If unexpected top-level government changes occur in the next half year or so, instability on either side could tip the scales and lead the conflict out of a stalemate
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than 20%
60%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Why do you think you're right?
I don't see Biden, in this geopolitical climate, making big strides in the way of renewables, despite the fact that they would probably provide more stability (albeit while also being less of a provider on an absolute GW basis).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Biden might turn to renewables more, or at least focus on their production more, or there may be more local development towards clean energy solutions in major metropolitan areas.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2023 06:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Dec 30, 2022 to Jan 30, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
There is enough of the populace that still believes in the cause of the war that even if Putin's approval rating drops in actuality, it may not below half of all people polled. In addition, figures may not reflect the actual, on the ground data given censorship in the country
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This would only be wrong if something goes horribly wrong for the Kremlin, eg. the death of Putin.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Important for shipping lanes, China will force Djibouti's hand even as some African countries are starting to wise up about debt-trap diplomacy and other similar practices the country is using across the continent
Why might you be wrong?
Potential Xi fall from power, economic downturn might signal contraction of Chinese economic expansion in the developing world.